PC market set to return to growth in 2018

The PC is set to stage a comeback in 2018, after the rise of smartphones sent sales of desktop and laptop computers into decline in recent years.

The latest industry prediction suggests a return to growth for PCs next year, as businesses upgrade their computers, while markets including China and Russia rebound.

Gartner, the research company, predicts the global devices market will grow by 2 per cent in 2018 to 2.35bn units. That would represent the fastest rate of growth since 2015.

Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, said the “misconception persists” that the world has gone completely mobile and relies on smartphones, when many people still use desktop computers, laptops and tablets for specific tasks including reading, watching videos and writing long emails.

He said users holding on to older PCs for a longer period remains an issue for the market and that traditional PC shipments will probably shrink 4.4 per cent in 2018. That decline is more rapid than the 3.6 per cent drop that was recorded in the third quarter of this year as component shortages led to price rises that weighed on shipment growth.

Yet businesses have started buying computers again, as more companies upgrade to Windows 10-based computers, according to Gartner. It predicts the overall market for PCs, including ultramobile laptop models, will rise 0.8 per cent in 2018 after a stable 2017.

Mr Atwal said the PC market in Russia is expected to grow 5 per cent this year, with expansion continuing into 2018. Growth in that market will be driven by desktop computers, which are more aggressively priced than mobile computers and hybrid devices.

Another growth driver will be China, where sales of PCs have been slow in 2017 because of security and privacy concerns related to Windows 10. With Microsoft now working with a Chinese government agency on an approved version of the software, Gartner expects a positive affect in 2018 as sales of ultramobile computers ramp up.

The total PC market is expected to drop to 263m units this year from 270m in 2016, but is forecast to top 265m in 2018. That compares to 352m in 2011.

The research company also expects phone sales to grow in 2018, with shipments expected to rise 2.4 per cent and smartphone sales seen rising 6 per cent to 1.6bn — about 86 per cent of overall mobile phone shipments. The iPhone X is seen as a sales driver in North America, China and Western Europe. With the phone not available until November, the impact of sales will not be felt until 2018.

That could follow a weak fourth quarter of 2017 when component shortages could limit supply of new phones, particularly at the lower end of the market.