5G to reach 1.5bn subs in 2024 – Ericsson

Ericsson believes 5G will be the fastest generation of cellular technology to be rolled out on a global scale, according to its latest Mobility Report, which found that in Q3 mobile data grew at its fastest rate since 2013.

5G is expected to reach more than 40% global population coverage and 1.5 billion subscriptions for enhanced mobile broadband by the end of 2024. This will account for close to 17% of all mobile subscriptions at that time.

With major 5G network deployments anticipated at a global level from only 2020, Ericsson is extremely confident of a fast uptake. It is worth noting that 3G took almost seven years to reach 200 million subs globally after initial launch in 2000/01.

North America and North East Asia are expected to lead the 5G uptake. In North America, 5G subscriptions are forecast to account for 55% of mobile subscriptions by the end of 2024. In North East Asia, the corresponding forecast figure is more than 43%. In Western Europe, 5G is forecast to account for some 30% of mobile subscriptions in the region by end of 2024.

Key drivers for deployment include increased network capacity, lower cost per gigabyte and new use case requirements.

Mobile data traffic in Q3 2018 grew close to 79% year-on-year, which is the highest rate since 2013, Ericsson said.

Increased data-traffic-per-smartphone in North East Asia, mainly in China, has pushed the global figure notably higher, according to the report. With a traffic growth per smartphone of around 140% between end 2017 and end 2018, the region has the second highest data traffic per smartphone at 7.3 gigabytes per month (comparable to streaming HD video for around 10 hours per month). North America still has the highest data traffic per smartphone, set to reach 8.6 gigabytes per month by the end of this year.

Between 2018-2024, total mobile data traffic is expected to increase by a factor of five, with 5G networks projected to carry 25% of mobile traffic by the end of the period.

Video makes up 60% of all mobile data traffic today and is expected to increase to 74% in 2024.

5G handsets

Despite the complexities, device and infrastructure vendors are now announcing products for mmWave, mid-band and low-band variants. More than 20 devices were announced in October 2018 alone.

in terms of smartphones in the main mid-band frequencies, Ericsson forecasts a "strong lineup" for Q2 2019. At this point it is difficult to accurately predict release timing or number of vendors, but second-generation chipsets are expected by the end of 2019, which will enable more 5G-capable devices with enhanced architectures and lower power consumption, the company said. Modules for laptops and industrial applications are expected within the same time frame.

"Recently, it has become apparent that 5G anticipation is much greater than that experienced in the lead-up to LTE. Key suppliers of cellular chipsets are spending significant resources on developing their 5G offerings. Clearly 5G is at the front of everyone’s mind – but it should also be remembered that this is just the beginning of a major technology shift, with many challenges ahead," said the report.

Total mobile subscriptions

Away from 5G, the total number of mobile subscriptions is now 7.9 billion, after 120 million new mobile subscriptions (up 3% year-on-year) were added in the latest quarter. However, it is estimated that there are around 5.6 billion subscribers globally. The global subscription penetration is at 104% in Q3 2018.

Of these, 5.7 billion are on mobile broadband subscriptions, according to the report. The number of mobile broadband subscriptions1 is growing at 15% year-on-year, increasing by 240 million in Q3 2018. The number of LTE subscriptions increased by 200 million during the quarter to reach a total of 3.3 billion.