Smartphone sales will grow only in India

India is expected to be the only major smartphone market that will grow in 2019, following on from a strong 2018, while China is staring at a decline and expansion in the US is expected to be flat.

Smartphone shipments in 2019 are expected to reach 160 million in India, according to Counterpoint Technology Market Research and CyberMedia Research. Sales are likely to grow 12% to 150 million units in 2018, from about 134 million in 2017, says Counterpoint.

The fastest-growing smartphone market revived in 2018 as product replacement and upgrades picked up on the back of launches across price points, an array of financing options, discounts and buyback offers, a trend that’s likely to continue in 2019, analysts said.

“There is a large replacement cycle due in 2019 for users who bought their first 4G smartphone between 2015 and 2017,” techARC founder Faisal Kawoosa told ET.

Tarun Pathak, assistant director, Counterpoint Research, said the Indian smartphone market is estimated to have grown 12% onyear, while annual global sales are estimated to have declined for the first time. IDC India associate research director Navkendar Singh said Reliance Jio Infocomm’s smartphone plan with Flex — if it comes through — could prove to be a game-changer in 2019.

“Jio is thinking of 100 million smartphones and even if they manage to do 40 million units spread across two to three quarters (in 2019), it could change the industry’s shape,” he said.

Market leader Xiaomi from China and second-ranked Samsung of South Korea dominated the year, together commanding over half of the smartphone market. They are expected to continue the ir fight for the top slot in 2019. Others in the top five will be from among Oppo, Vivo, RealMe, HMD Global (Nokia branded phones) and Huawei/Honor.

“The market is consolidating at the top. With bigger players getting bigger and marginalising smaller players, it is very difficult for the latter to start picking up share,” said Singh, adding that Samsung didn’t perform badly this year, while Xiaomi picked up market share from other vendors.

This year, the $100-$200 smartphone segment accounted for more than half of the market, driving up average selling price and likely translating into higher revenue.

Prabhu Ram, head of industry intelligence group at CyberMedia Research, said the online market grew beyond established tier II cities, giving wider coverage and scope for entry-level brands such as Asus and Huawei/Honor.

Counterpoint, techARC and CMR expect total shipments to touch 330-350 million in 2019, driven by smartphones and 4G feature phones, while 2G feature phone sales will fall. “Though smartphones and 4G feature phones are expected to grow in 2019 at double-digit rates, feature phones will fall for the first time below the 100 million mark a year. This is going to flatten the overall growth,” Kawoosa said.

The feature phone segment will see 18% growth in 2018 to 193 million units, while 4G feature phones will see growth more than trebling to 70 million units, as per CMR estimates.