Mild decline in personal computing devices shipments
Global shipments of personal computing devices (PCDs), comprised of traditional PCs (a combination of desktop, notebook, tablets and workstations) are forecast to decline from a total of 435.0 million units in 2016 to 418.2 million units in 2021.
This is according to the Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker from International Data Corporation (IDC), which found PCDs shipments for the forecast period represents a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.8%. The forecast comes on the heels of a stronger-than-expected showing for traditional PCs in 2016, when a combination of aggressive promotional activities in the second half of the year and tightening component supply for notebooks helped to drive stronger PC volumes across both the consumer and commercial channels in the fourth quarter, adds IDC.
As far as the tablet market is concerned, IDC says slate tablet shipments continued to decline as expected and detachables saw a dramatic decline in the fourth quarter, largely due to the segment's dependence on individual product launch cycles from the likes of Apple and Microsoft.
The absence of product refreshes in the quarter led to a year-over-year decline of 26.1% for detachables in Q4 2016 and contributed to a more tempered outlook for the entire tablet market.
"Regardless of what marketers are saying, detachable tablets are simply not putting pressure on notebooks yet," said Jitesh Ubrani, senior research analyst, Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "Consumers are just starting to graduate from old, consumption-based, slate tablets to a more productive detachable tablet. At the same time, the benefits of having a thin, touch-sensitive, productivity-based machine is shining light on the traditional PC category, causing vendors and consumers to focus on more premium devices in the convertible and ultra slim space."
Despite the 2016 decline, IDC expects growth will return to the tablet market over the next five years due to the growing popularity of detachable devices.
The report further found commercial notebook shipments finished the year on a positive note, growing more than 2% year over year as more Windows 10 trials translated into real deployments. Meanwhile, consumer notebook shipments declined by only 1% from Q4 2015, helped by strong model launches in the ultra slim and convertible notebook categories.
Gartner estimates worldwide PC shipments fell 3.7% to 72.6 million units in Q4 2016, marking the ninth quarter of PC shipment declines. According to the firm's numbers, PC shipments have declined annually since 2012.
"Stagnation in the PC market continued into the fourth quarter of 2016 as holiday sales were generally weak due to the fundamental change in PC buying behaviour," says Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. "The broad PC market has been static as technology improvements have not been sufficient to drive real market growth. There have been innovative form factors like 2-in-1s and thin and light notebooks, as well as technology improvements, such as longer battery life. This end of the market has grown fast, led by engaged PC users who put high priority on PCs. However, the market driven by PC enthusiasts is not big enough to drive overall market growth."
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