Global device shipments will remain flat in 2019, forecasts Gartner
Global shipments of PCs, tablets and smartphones will see flat growth in 2019, Gartner has predicted, with the total number devices on course to reach 2.21 billion units over the year.
According to the analyst house's findings, the PC market is set to continue its current downward trend, while the mobile phone market is expected to return growth in 2020.
PC shipments are expected to total 258 million units in 2019, marking a 0.6% decline from last year, with traditional PC shipments tipped to regress by 3% to 189 million units.
“Consumers are increasingly retiring their PCs but not replacing them, with shipments down by another 2.5 million units in 2019,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, who also noted the effects of Windows 10 migration.
“For businesses, the Windows 10 migration continues into the next phase. While the US is now in the final phase, China having delayed their migration still has a few years to go,” Atwal continued. “By moving the Windows 10 migration to 2020, organisations increase the risk of remaining on an unsupported operating system. Windows 7 support is scheduled to end in January 2020.”
By 2021, Windows 10 will account for 75% of the total profession PC market, Gartner analysts predict.
Elsewhere, shipments of mobile phones are also forecast to show a decline of 0.5% year-over-year, with the total number estimated to reach 1.8 billion units in 2019.
“Users have reached a threshold for new technology and applications, which means that unless new models provide significant new utility, efficiency or experiences, users don’t want or need to upgrade,” said Gartner research director Roberta Cozza.
“As a result, we expect the high-end mobile phone market to continue to show a decline in mature markets during 2019.”
There is, however, a more positive outlook on the horizon for the mobile phone market. In 2020, a predicted 1.2% increase in shipments will see the market return to growth, but Gartner cautioned that consumers are extending the lifetime of their handsets. By 2023, the average high-end phone lifetime will increase from 2.6 years to 2.8 years, the research firm forecasted.
While Gartner expects foldable phones will re-inject some innovation into the market, vendors are cautious about their short-term uptake due to trade-offs and early form-factor experimentation. By 2023, analysts predict that foldable handsets will total 30 million units, making up 5% of the high-end market.
“Through the next five years, we expect foldable phones to remain a niche product due to several manufacturing challenges,” Cozza added. “In addition to the surface of the screen, the price is a barrier despite we expect to decline with time. Currently priced at $2,000, foldable phones present too many trade-offs, even for many early technology adopters.”
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